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AccuWeather’s 2021 Fall Foliage Forecast

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AccuWeather’s 2021 Fall Foliage Forecast

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The days are growing shorter and pumpkins are popping up at supermarkets from coast to coast, precursors to a dramatic shift that is about to take place on hillsides and mountain ranges all across the continent.

One of the tell-tale signs that autumn has arrived is when forests transition to a palette of vibrant colors, a transformation so grand that it can be seen from space.

In early August, Accu-Weather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok provided a sneak peek at the foliage outlook with AccuWeather’s annual fall forecast, and now with meteorological autumn underway, he is providing a more detailed outlook on the foliage forecast.

Appalachians and Northeast

Some of the most popular places to enjoy fall foliage in the eastern U.S. are expected to feature vibrant displays this autumn. It is expected to be a much different season compared to what unfolded in 2020.

A much different story is expected to unfold this year across much of the Northeast with many areas seeing more impressive colors, but the changing of the leaves may not take place right on schedule. Pastelok also noted that results can be mixed in terms of bright fall colors due to differences in precipitation amounts picked up in recent months.

For places like Vermont, New Hampshire and upstate New York, the peak of the fall foliage typically occurs in late September and the first week of October. However, this year it could occur closer to the second week of October.

There is the chance that colors could overachieve in this area. If the rest of September is a bit drier, Pastelok said that there could be “excellent conditions” in these areas.

Excellent conditions, though, are a bit of a long shot this year due to precipitation amounts. Such a scenario is certainly not out of the question, but the record-setting rain that Ida unloaded over Pennsylvania, New Jersey and southern New England around the start of September after the second half of summer brought with it well above-normal rainfall, which could limit the chances that leaves will overachieve this fall.

For instance, Central Park in New York City measured more than 7 inches of rain on Sept. 1 as flash flooding from Ida wreaked havoc across the city. To put that amount of rainfall in perspective, this single day accounted for nearly twice the amount of rain that typically falls in Central Park throughout all of September.

The central and southern Appalachians have a similar forecast on tap, but the wet weather could have a bigger influence on the colors that appear on the trees.

Wet weather influences how much red shows up in the leaves, but even without the red leaves, there should be beautiful displays in some of the more popular mountain destinations.

Great Lakes, Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley

Leaf peepers across the Midwest and the Mississippi Valley are likely to have a good showing this year thanks to the weather patterns that have evolved over the past few months.

Areas farther south and east across the Midwest that picked up more rainfall throughout the summer, when compared to western areas in the grips of a drought, are expected to exhibit more vibrant colors with more reds and oranges, according to Pastelok. Chicago and Detroit are among the areas that Pastelok highlighted for nice fall foliage viewing this fall.

Because of the drought farther west, Minnesota and surrounding areas may miss out on vibrant colors this autumn. Even if there are some periods of rain throughout September, it will be too late to help the foliage.

Colors are projected to be near or slightly better than normal farther south through the Mississippi River Valley and surrounding regions. This includes areas around Little Rock, Arkansas, St. Louis, Nashville and Memphis, Tennessee, and Lexington, Kentucky.

Rocky Mountains

The Rocky Mountains will be split in half in terms of fall foliage displays this year with one region that will sizzle and another region that will fizzle.

The active monsoon over the Four Corners this year did more than help with short-term drought concerns. The moisture set the stage for a vibrant display of fall foliage across the mountainous landscape.

Aspen trees in particular will be more vibrant than last year, although this will not be the case across all of Colorado. Although not deciduous trees, Aspens are known to turn stunning golden-yellow hues in the fall due to a lack of photosynthesis.

This means that Aspens in places like Rocky Mountain National Park in northern Colorado may not be quite as stunning as those farther south.

Foliage is not anticipated to be quite as colorful across the northern Rockies with early leaf drop likely, in part due to widespread drought conditions.

Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, and northern Utah all are experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

This drought increases the stress on the trees, reducing the colors visible in the leaves before they fall off the deciduous trees in the region.

West Coast

The fall foliage across the West Coast states in 2020 was below normal in terms of colors, and a repeat is likely to unfold in 2021 with duller colors predicted across most of the region.

This includes almost all of California and the eastern areas of Oregon and Washington.

Even if there are pockets of good colors in a few spots, the displays will be nothing like those along the East Coast, in part due to the active wildfire season.